Explainer: Ukraine Ends Russian Gas Transit to EU – What’s Next?

Ukraine has ended Russian gas transit to the EU after its five-year deal with Gazprom expired on January 1. President Volodymyr Zelensky stated the move prevents Russia from profiting during its invasion of Ukraine. The decision affects Austria, Slovakia, and other Eastern European nations but spares Hungary and Serbia, which use alternative pipelines like TurkStream.

Impact on Russia

Once Europe’s largest gas supplier, Russia’s share has dropped from 35% to 8% since the war began. Moscow has lost its market to competitors like Norway, the U.S., and Qatar. Experts believe the EU can replace the lost supply with liquefied natural gas and alternative imports, minimizing price surges.

Who Is Most Affected?

• Slovakia: Relies on Russian gas for two-thirds of its needs. Prime Minister Robert Fico criticized Ukraine’s decision and threatened to cut electricity exports to Ukraine.
• Austria: Has prepared for supply changes and remains unaffected.
• Moldova: Faces a critical situation as Gazprom has cut deliveries amid a debt dispute.

EU’s Options

Most Russian gas routes, like Yamal-Europe and Nord Stream, are already shut. EU countries may rely on TurkStream, but capacity is limited. Slovakia can source gas from Hungary, Austria, and other neighboring nations, while Moldova plans to reduce consumption by a third.

Ukraine, which no longer depends on Russian gas, remains unaffected. The move signals a significant shift in Europe’s energy landscape, reducing reliance on Russian supplies.