Why Donald Trump Might Be on the Losing End of the Ukraine Mineral Deal

Washington – President Donald Trump is on the verge of finalizing a mineral trade agreement with Ukraine that would grant the United States preferential access to the country’s vast natural resource reserves. While the deal appears promising on the surface, experts warn that the true value and feasibility of extracting these resources remain uncertain, potentially making it a costly gamble for Washington.

Outdated Estimates and Questionable Viability

The agreement, first reported by Ukraine’s Economic Pravda, includes a provision allocating 50% of Ukraine’s state-owned natural resource revenues to a dedicated investment fund for the country. However, crucially, the deal does not come with U.S. security guarantees, raising questions about its long-term viability.

Ukraine’s Natural Resources and Environment Ministry claims the country’s underground reserves hold approximately 5% of the world’s critical raw materials, including graphite, lithium, titanium, beryllium, and uranium—all essential for defense, technology, and energy industries. These materials could help reduce U.S. reliance on China, which currently dominates 90% of global rare earth processing.

However, much of Ukraine’s resource data is based on outdated Soviet-era surveys that did not fully assess the economic feasibility or extraction costs of these reserves. Of the 20,000 mineral deposits and sites identified in Ukraine, only around 8,000 have been deemed viable for development.

High Costs and Infrastructure Challenges

Extracting these resources will require significant investment, with the Ukrainian Geological Survey estimating that just one major deposit—the Novopoltavske rare earth site—would require a $300 million investment to develop. The cost of building the necessary mines, processing facilities, and infrastructure for the country’s 10 largest known mining projects is projected at $15 billion.

Even if the U.S. gains access to these minerals, processing them domestically presents another challenge. Currently, China controls nearly all refining capabilities for rare earths, meaning raw materials extracted from Ukraine would either have to be processed in China—undermining the goal of reducing dependence on Beijing—or require the U.S. to invest heavily in new processing infrastructure, a process that could take years.

Geopolitical Risks and Russian-Occupied Territories

Beyond financial and logistical concerns, the deal is further complicated by ongoing territorial disputes. Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko estimates that Russia now occupies $350 billion worth of Ukraine’s mineral and gas reserves, including promising mining prospects in the country’s east and south. Many of the richest deposits remain in areas controlled by Russian forces, raising doubts about whether Ukraine can fully deliver on its mineral commitments.

Trump now faces a strategic dilemma: increase U.S. support for Ukraine to help Kyiv regain control of these territories or seek an alternative deal with Russia, which holds key resource-rich regions.

Is the Deal Worth It for the U.S.?

Despite its geopolitical significance, some analysts argue that the high extraction costs, lack of processing infrastructure, and uncertain mineral reserves could make the deal less beneficial for the U.S. than it appears. A report by S&P Global notes that even with access to Ukraine’s rare earth elements, the complexity and cost of extraction could outweigh the potential benefits.

With Trump’s administration pushing for a reduced reliance on Chinese minerals, this agreement could be a step in the right direction—but whether it proves to be a strategic win or a financial misstep remains to be seen.