Markets Won’t Get the Certainty They Want from Trump’s Tariff Announcement

Global markets remained on edge Wednesday as investors awaited a major announcement from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding his long-promised global tariff strategy. Scheduled for 4 p.m. ET, the address is expected to outline which countries and sectors will be affected, the magnitude and timing of the tariffs, and the potential for exemptions—yet analysts remain skeptical about how much clarity will truly be provided.

Market Performance Suffers Amid Tariff Fears

The month of March was particularly rough for global equities. The MSCI World Index recorded its worst monthly performance in a year and a half. Europe's Stoxx 600 dropped 4.18%, while the U.S. S&P 500 tumbled 5.75%. Asia-Pacific markets fared slightly better, though China’s CSI 300 saw a marginal dip of 0.07%.

“Peak Uncertainty” or More Turmoil to Come?

Zoe Gillespie, a chartered wealth manager at RBC Brewin Dolphin, expressed concern that Trump's announcement would fall short of providing comprehensive answers. “The danger lies in what comes after the announcement,” she said, noting potential retaliatory tariffs from the European Union.

Gillespie warned that if the policy lacks clarity, uncertainty could persist and impact long-term growth, possibly derailing any signals of market recovery. “It’s not just about inflation now,” she added, “but about entrenched policy uncertainty.”

EU and UK Responses on Standby

The European Union, the largest U.S. trading partner, has already responded with initial retaliatory tariffs against American steel and aluminum. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pledged to use “all instruments” if further U.S. tariffs are imposed.

Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer signaled a willingness to negotiate, emphasizing the UK's balanced trade relationship with the U.S. and its hope to avoid the worst consequences of Trump’s economic actions.

“Carnage Day” for Markets?

Ozan Ozkural, founding managing partner at Tanto Capital Partners, described April 2 as potentially “Carnage Day” for markets. “This is classic Trump: shock and awe to push negotiations,” he said. The unpredictable news cycle, he added, makes asset pricing nearly impossible.

Ozkural noted additional global factors influencing commodities pricing, such as potential secondary sanctions on Venezuelan and Russian oil and talks of a Russia-Ukraine deal. “We’re managing this hour by hour,” he said.

Long-Term Outlook Still Favors U.S., Say Analysts

Despite short-term chaos, both Gillespie and Ozkural expect U.S. markets to eventually outperform. Gillespie cited the strength and diversity of U.S. companies and innovation in artificial intelligence. “It’s hard to ignore the U.S. long-term,” she said.

Still, the short-to-medium-term path remains uncertain. Analysts are closely watching how Trump’s tariffs will affect inflation, interest rates, and global supply chains.

Hope for Moderation and Stability

Arnaud Girod of Kepler Cheuvreux believes the current climate may represent “peak uncertainty.” He expressed hope that Wednesday’s announcement would be the worst of the turbulence and that clarity and negotiation could soon follow.

“If we’ve reached the peak,” Girod said, “then markets can begin to stabilize. But if this continues, recovery may be delayed indefinitely.”