JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Warns Markets Are Too Complacent on Tariffs, Predicts S&P 500 Earnings Growth Will Collapse

Jamie Dimon, Chief Executive Officer of JPMorgan Chase, warned Monday that financial markets are underestimating the risks posed by surging U.S. deficits, rising tariffs, and growing geopolitical tensions. Speaking at JPMorgan’s annual investor day in New York, Dimon said that stock prices currently do not reflect the true potential for economic disruption.

Dimon expressed concern that central banks are being overly optimistic about their ability to manage a complex environment shaped by inflation, trade policy, and global instability. “We have huge deficits; we have what I consider almost complacent central banks,” Dimon said. “You all think they can manage all this. I don’t think they can.”

He pointed specifically to investor indifference toward the recent introduction of tariffs. “My own view is people feel pretty good because you haven’t seen effective tariffs,” he added. “The market came down 10%, [it’s] back up 10%. That’s an extraordinary amount of complacency.”

The remarks come just days after Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating due to concerns over the national debt burden. Investors have grown increasingly wary of President Donald Trump’s recent trade policies, which many believe could push inflation higher and slow down growth.

Dimon predicted that earnings growth for S&P 500 companies, which has already begun to decline, will fall to zero in the next six months. He said Wall Street’s initial projection of 12% earnings growth for the year will be significantly revised downward. “I think earnings estimates will come down, which means PE will come down,” he said, referring to the widely used price-to-earnings ratio.

The JPMorgan CEO also warned that the probability of stagflation—defined as simultaneous inflation and recession—is higher than what the market is currently pricing in. “The odds of stagflation are about double what the market thinks,” Dimon noted.

Elsewhere during the investor meeting, the bank’s investment and commercial banking co-head Troy Rohrbaugh shared that corporate clients remain cautious, with many still in “wait-and-see” mode regarding mergers and acquisitions. Investment banking revenue is expected to decline by a mid-teens percentage in the second quarter compared to last year, while trading revenue is trending upward by a mid-to-high single-digit percentage.

On the matter of succession planning, Dimon reiterated that nothing has changed since last year when he indicated he may remain as CEO for less than five more years. “If I’m here for four more years, and maybe two more as executive chairman, that’s a long time,” he said.

Among the firm’s leadership team, consumer banking head Marianne Lake emerged as a prominent figure during the event, delivering the longest presentation of the day. She is widely viewed as a top candidate to succeed Dimon, especially after Chief Operating Officer Jennifer Piepszak announced she is no longer pursuing the role.