Hyundai Expected to Outsell Ford in Third Quarter as Hybrids Gain Ground

Hyundai Motor Group is expected to outsell Ford in the U.S. during the third quarter, marking the first time Hyundai and Kia together are projected to record higher quarterly sales than Ford, according to Cox Automotive.

The forecast comes as U.S. buyers increasingly seek fuel-efficient vehicles and hybrids, while traditional Detroit automakers face pressure from Asian brands with broader hybrid lineups.

Hyundai and Kia Gain Ground

Cox expects Hyundai and Kia's combined sales to surpass Ford's in the July-September period. Hyundai Motor Group is also forecast to post another strong quarter, with sales rising from both a year earlier and the previous quarter.

Ford's sales, meanwhile, are projected to decline 8.8% through the first three quarters of 2026, reducing its U.S. market share to about 12.5%.

Hybrids Become a Key Advantage

Higher gasoline prices are pushing more buyers toward hybrids, which combine a gasoline engine with an electric motor and battery.

Cox said automakers with multiple hybrid models have performed better this year, while GM and Ford have been hurt by a relative lack of fuel-efficient cars and SUVs. GM currently does not offer hybrid models across its lineup, while Ford discontinued the Escape, one of its more fuel-efficient offerings.

Toyota, the leader in U.S. hybrid sales, is expected to increase sales by 1.1% through the first three quarters, while Honda's sales are projected to rise 5.6%.

Detroit Automakers Lose Market Share

The expected Hyundai-Kia shift is part of a broader change in the U.S. auto market.

The combined market share of GM, Ford and Stellantis is expected to fall to around 36%, the lowest level on record, according to Cox. Asian brands are forecast to account for more than half of U.S. new-vehicle sales for a second consecutive quarter.

Ford has also faced lower pickup production after a fire at an aluminum supplier affected output this year.

US Auto Demand Remains Resilient

Despite higher fuel prices, interest rates and economic uncertainty, the overall U.S. vehicle market has remained relatively strong.

Cox has raised its 2026 U.S. new-vehicle sales forecast to 16.1 million, from its previous estimate of 15.8 million. The firm said demand has remained stronger than expected heading into the final quarter.

The latest forecast highlights how consumer preferences are shifting within the market, with hybrids and fuel-efficient vehicles becoming increasingly important as automakers compete for buyers in the final months of 2026.

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