Trump’s Tariff Deadline Nears as U.S.-EU Trade Deal Hangs in Balance

Brussels/Washington, July 4, 2025 — Time is running out for the U.S. and European Union to finalize a trade agreement as the July 9 deadline for President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs rapidly approaches. Without a breakthrough, EU goods could face tariffs as high as 50%, with the risk of reciprocal EU measures following soon after.

The two economic giants have been in discussions throughout a 90-day pause on so-called reciprocal tariffs, but negotiators have struggled to make meaningful progress. The EU now appears focused on securing a basic political framework rather than a full agreement.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen admitted Thursday that a detailed deal is “impossible” within the deadline, but said the bloc is prepared for any outcome.

“All the instruments are on the table,” she said.

In 2024, trade between the U.S. and EU totaled nearly €1.68 trillion ($1.98 trillion), making their relationship one of the most significant globally. Key sectors include pharmaceuticals, vehicles, and energy products.

President Trump has long criticized this relationship, accusing the EU of unfair trade practices. The White House argues the reciprocal tariffs are necessary to level the playing field.

Despite recent meetings between EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic and U.S. officials in Washington, the tone remains cautious.

“We’ll see what we can do,” said U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Experts remain skeptical.
Former U.S. Ambassador to the EU Anthony Gardner noted a “bare-bones” deal, similar to past U.K. arrangements, is possible but unlikely to cover the full scope of trade concerns.

Carsten Nickel of Teneo suggested that a temporary agreement could allow both sides more time, potentially accepting a 10% baseline tariff to avoid a full trade clash. However, he warned that any deal struck will likely remain vulnerable to shifts in U.S. policy.

If Trump enacts the full tariffs next week, Nickel believes the EU would respond cautiously:

“Even then, I think the EU will tread carefully.”

With days left, uncertainty dominates the transatlantic economic agenda. Business leaders on both sides are bracing for a possible escalation in one of the world’s most critical trade partnerships.