Immigration, Trade, and Tariffs: What Will Define India-US Ties Under Trump 2.0

New Delhi: In the wake of Donald Trump’s return to the White House for his second term, the spotlight has turned to the evolving dynamics of India-US relations. The 78-year-old US President, known for his bold policy decisions and unconventional diplomacy, held a telephonic conversation with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday, marking the first interaction between the leaders since Trump’s inauguration as the 47th President of the United States.

During the call, Trump reportedly discussed illegal Indian immigrants in the US and expressed confidence that PM Modi would “do what is right” regarding the matter. The conversation also highlighted India’s pivotal role in trade, security, and the strategic Indo-Pacific region.

India-US Relations During Trump’s First Term

India and the US enjoyed a strong rapport during Trump’s first presidency (2017-2021), bolstered by the personal camaraderie between Trump and Modi. Their joint appearances at high-profile events—such as the "Howdy, Modi!" rally in Houston in 2019 and the "Namaste Trump" event in Ahmedabad in 2020—underscored the warmth in bilateral ties.

Under Trump, the US played a key role in reviving the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), bringing India, Japan, Australia, and the US together to promote a free and open Indo-Pacific. This framework strengthened India’s strategic importance in countering China’s growing influence in the region. The renaming of the Pacific Command to the Indo-Pacific Command further symbolized India’s centrality to US strategy in Asia.

Trump’s foreign policy blueprint, which stressed an expansive Indo-Pacific stretching from India’s west coast to the US west coast, provided a robust foundation for cooperation. This approach was largely sustained by the Biden administration, ensuring continuity in strategic priorities.

Key Challenges Under Trump 2.0

While the India-US relationship is expected to see continuity in many areas, Trump’s second term introduces certain challenges. Known for his tough stance on trade, Trump has criticized India as a “big abuser” of US trade policies. On Monday, he reiterated his plans to impose tariffs on countries like India, China, and Brazil, which he claims implement high tariffs on American goods.

India and the US boast a robust trade partnership, with bilateral trade reaching $118 billion in 2023-24. However, Trump’s focus on addressing the $32 billion trade deficit and his push for greater procurement of American-made security equipment could lead to contentious negotiations.

Immigration also remains a significant aspect of the bilateral relationship. Indian workers form a critical segment of the US tech industry, with over 25% of STEM professionals in the US being Indian as of 2023. Trump’s pledge to crack down on illegal immigration while supporting skilled legal migration aligns with India’s strengths in IT and engineering talent.

Reports suggest that the US has identified approximately 18,000 Indian migrants residing in the country illegally. Following his call with Modi, Trump expressed optimism that India would cooperate in addressing the issue.

Commitment to the Quad and Indo-Pacific

Despite potential challenges, Trump has reaffirmed his commitment to the Quad, a cornerstone of India-US strategic alignment. During Monday’s call, both leaders emphasized their shared vision for the Indo-Pacific and announced that India would host Quad leaders later this year.

India’s significance in US efforts to maintain its global preeminence cannot be overstated. With the Quad and other regional initiatives, the two nations are poised to deepen their cooperation in areas like defense, technology, and supply chain resilience.

Looking Ahead

While Trump’s tariff threats and immigration policies may test the resilience of the India-US relationship, the underlying strategic convergence is likely to sustain ties between the world’s two largest democracies. The coming months will reveal how Modi and Trump navigate these complexities to build on the solid foundation of their previous partnership.