China Exports Beat Expectations as Trade Surplus Hits Record in Early 2026

China’s exports surged far beyond expectations in the first two months of 2026, pushing the country’s trade surplus to the highest level on record and signaling strong resilience in the world’s second-largest economy.

Official customs data showed China’s trade surplus reached $213.62 billion during the combined January–February period, significantly higher than the $179.6 billion forecast by economists.

China typically combines trade data for January and February to account for distortions caused by the shifting Lunar New Year holiday, which affects factory activity and shipping schedules.

Exports from China rose 21.8% year-on-year, far exceeding market expectations of 7.1% growth, according to economists surveyed earlier.

Imports also grew strongly, rising 19.8% compared with the same period last year, beating expectations of 6.3% growth.

Trade Patterns Shift

Despite the strong overall performance, trade between China and the United States declined sharply, falling 16.9% to 609.71 billion yuan (about $88.2 billion) in the first two months of the year.

At the same time, China recorded stronger trade growth with other major partners.

Trade with the European Union rose 19.9% to 998.94 billion yuan, while trade with ASEAN countries increased 20.3% to 1.24 trillion yuan, highlighting China’s growing economic ties across Europe and Southeast Asia.

Inflation and Policy Signals

The trade figures follow the release of inflation data showing China’s consumer prices rose 1.3% in February, exceeding forecasts for a 0.8% increase.

The increase marks the strongest rebound in inflation since early 2023, supported by consumer spending during the extended Lunar New Year holiday period.

Economists noted that the later timing of the holiday may have amplified the year-on-year growth figures, though analysts say it likely does not fully explain the strong export performance.

Outlook for China’s Economy

The data also comes shortly after China’s annual “Two Sessions” policy meetings, where Premier Li Qiang set a GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5% for 2026, the lowest range announced in more than three decades.

Analysts say the strong export performance may reduce the need for additional economic stimulus in the near term.

Trade relations between China and the United States remain strained despite some improvements following talks between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping during the APEC summit last year.

While some tariffs have been reduced, several earlier duties on Chinese goods remain in place, keeping effective tariff rates relatively high for many exports.

Despite ongoing trade tensions, the latest data suggests global demand for Chinese goods remains strong at the start of 2026.