U.S. Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Likely to Let India Continue Buying Russian Oil

New Delhi — India is likely to continue purchasing Russian oil after a U.S. Supreme Court ruling limited President Donald Trump’s authority to impose sweeping import tariffs, analysts said.

The court ruled that Trump did not have the legal authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to implement broad import tariffs. Analysts say the decision reduces Washington’s ability to use trade penalties to pressure India over its energy imports from Russia.

“I do expect that India will maintain a healthy relationship with Russia, including on energy,” Sarang Shidore, director of the Global South Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said. He noted that India may reduce purchases but is unlikely to halt them entirely.

According to energy data firm Kpler, India has imported about 1.16 million barrels per day (mbd) of Russian oil so far in February. This is lower than the 2025 average of 1.71 million barrels per day.

Market analysts said Indian refiners had slowed bookings for April deliveries of Russian crude following an interim trade agreement between India and the United States earlier this month. However, after the Supreme Court ruling, India may have more room to maintain imports between 800,000 and 1 million barrels per day in the coming months.

India’s purchases of Russian crude have been a sensitive issue in U.S.-India relations. In August last year, Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, citing India’s continued buying of Russian oil. Combined with existing reciprocal tariffs, total duties on Indian exports to the United States reached 50%.

Following negotiations, the U.S. reduced tariffs on Indian goods to 18%. In an executive order issued on Feb. 6, Trump removed the punitive 25% tariff, stating that India had committed to stop importing Russian oil and increase purchases of U.S. energy products.

However, the joint statement issued after the interim trade deal did not mention any formal commitment by India to curb Russian oil imports. The statement instead highlighted India’s intention to purchase up to $500 billion worth of U.S. goods, including energy, over five years.

Alexandra Hermann, lead economist at Oxford Economics, said India’s commitments on Russian oil were never formally codified and would have been difficult to implement. She added that India’s energy strategy is driven largely by pricing and supply diversification.

“U.S. crude is unlikely to displace Russian barrels in any meaningful way,” Hermann said.

India typically imports between 200,000 and 300,000 barrels per day of U.S. crude, according to Kpler data. As of January, Russia remained India’s largest supplier of crude oil, while the United States ranked sixth.

Analysts also said that imposing a uniform global tariff rate, currently at 10%, reduces any trade leverage that could have been used to influence India’s energy purchases.

India’s trade negotiators have postponed a planned visit to Washington to review the implications of the latest developments.