Poland Beats Spain on Income as Tusk Claims ‘European Elite’ Status

Warsaw: Poland has overtaken Spain in per capita income measured in purchasing power parity (PPP), according to International Monetary Fund forecasts, marking a symbolic milestone in the country’s economic rise.

IMF data show that Poland’s per capita income in PPP terms reached approximately €49,650 last year, slightly above Spain’s estimated €49,465. The calculation adjusts GDP per capita for differences in living costs, allowing for a more accurate comparison of living standards across countries.

The shift reflects Poland’s faster economic growth. The country’s GDP is projected to expand by around 3.6%, compared with Spain’s expected growth rate of 2.8%.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk described the figures as evidence that Poland is entering the “European economic elite,” highlighting that the country has now surpassed Spain on this key indicator.

IMF forecasts further suggest Poland has reached about 87% of the United Kingdom’s per capita income in PPP terms. A decade ago, such convergence appeared unlikely. Government projections indicate that, if current trends continue, Poland could match UK levels within five to six years.

Beyond the Headline Numbers

Economists caution that while PPP-adjusted income offers useful insight, it does not fully capture overall wealth.

Marek Zuber, a Polish economist and expert at WSB Academy, said PPP provides a more comprehensive measure than nominal GDP per capita because it accounts for domestic purchasing power.

“Income per capita in terms of purchasing power parity is better than simply dividing GDP by the number of inhabitants, because it takes into account the purchasing capacity in a country,” Zuber noted.

He added that the data show Polish incomes are rising faster than those in Spain, but emphasized that the figure represents only part of a broader picture.

Indicators such as pension replacement rates, healthcare spending, accumulated wealth, and real estate ownership also play a major role in determining real living standards. Western European countries often benefit from higher inherited wealth and property ownership levels, which remain comparatively lower in Poland.

Zuber also pointed to disposable income levels, spending patterns, and social security coverage as critical factors shaping how economic growth translates into everyday living conditions.

The current acceleration in Poland’s economy has been largely consumption-driven, supported by wage growth and social transfers. According to Zuber, wage increases have been the primary driver of growth following the 2023 slowdown, with consumption serving as the main engine of expansion in 2024.

Growth Comes With Debt Concerns

While economic performance has strengthened, rising public debt remains a concern.

The European Commission’s Debt Sustainability Monitor 2025 warns that if existing fiscal policies and borrowing trends continue, Poland’s public debt could exceed 100% of GDP by 2036, potentially reaching around 107%.

Economists estimate that Poland is likely to surpass a 70% debt-to-GDP ratio in the coming years.

Zuber stressed that Poland is not facing a crisis comparable to Greece’s past debt turmoil, but cautioned that fiscal limits are approaching. He warned that further increases in social spending could risk capital outflows.

Despite these challenges, the outlook remains moderately positive. With stronger investment and improved export performance, Poland’s economy could expand by as much as 4.5% this year, according to Zuber.

Poland’s latest milestone underscores its steady convergence with Western European economies, though questions remain about the sustainability and structure of that growth in the years ahead.