Japan’s Exports Rebound in September, But U.S. Shipments Continue to Fall

Tokyo: Japan’s exports rose in September for the first time in four months, climbing 4.2% year-on-year, supported by strong demand from Asia, even as shipments to the United States continued to tumble.

The rebound fell short of Reuters’ forecast of a 4.6% rise, with semiconductor exports leading the recovery, up 12.6% from a year earlier. Shipments to Asia jumped 9.2%, including a 5.8% increase to China, while exports to the U.S. plunged 13.3%, hit by ongoing tariffs and weaker automobile demand.

Auto shipments to the U.S. fell 24.2% in value, easing slightly from the 28.4% drop in August. Tokyo’s July trade deal with Washington reduced U.S. tariffs on Japanese goods to 15% from 25%, but exporters say trade frictions continue to weigh on performance.

Imports also climbed 3.3%, reversing August’s 5.2% fall and exceeding the expected 0.6% rise.

Economists caution that the rebound may be overstated due to a low base last year. “Exports are not as strong as they appear,” said Hirofumi Suzuki, Chief FX Strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, adding that policy factors like tariffs have had a greater impact than currency movements.

The report comes as Sanae Takaichi takes office as Japan’s first female prime minister, pledging fiscal stimulus and loose monetary policy, moves expected to further weaken the yen, which traded near 150 per dollar in September.

A weaker yen could help exporters, but analysts warn that U.S.-China tensions may continue to cloud Japan’s trade outlook.