Will iPhones Cost More Because of Trump’s China Tariffs? Experts Say Price Hikes Are Likely

With U.S. President Donald Trump raising tariffs on Chinese imports to a staggering 145%, a pressing question has gripped American consumers: Will iPhones become more expensive?

While Apple has yet to issue a formal response, analysts warn that the impact on pricing could be significant — not only in the United States, but potentially across global markets. Given that the vast majority of Apple’s iPhones are still assembled in China, the cost shock may soon trickle down to buyers.

China-Made iPhones in the Crosshairs

According to Counterpoint Research, as much as 80% of iPhones sold in the U.S. are made in China, with the remainder manufactured in India. Now, those Chinese-made devices face the full brunt of Trump’s newly announced tariffs.

In practical terms, the cost of an iPhone 16 Pro Max (256GB)—originally priced at $1,199—could jump to $1,999, estimates UBS, an investment banking firm. Even the more affordable iPhone 16 Pro (128GB), which is produced in India, could see a 5% price increase, potentially climbing from $999 to $1,046.

Analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities has warned that if Apple shifts significant parts of its manufacturing to the U.S., a “Made in America” iPhone could cost up to $3,500 — a price point that could challenge even Apple’s loyal customer base.

Apple's Global Pricing Dilemma

Apple has long maintained consistent global pricing to avoid gray market reselling and protect brand perception. As Ben Wood of CCS Insight notes, the company is unlikely to offer cheaper iPhones in foreign markets while raising prices in the U.S. Instead, any adjustment in cost may be applied universally, which could mean price increases globally — including in the U.K. and Europe.

"Apple wouldn’t want consumers buying cheaper iPhones in the U.K. and reselling them in the U.S. for profit," Wood explained.

This pricing conundrum may prompt the company to revamp its sales model, possibly through extended financing. With four-year phone contracts already in place for some models, Wood suggests that five-year payment plans could become the new normal.

“It’s almost like taking out a mortgage for your smartphone,” he quipped.

The Supply Chain Shift: A Long Road Ahead

In response to tariff pressures, Apple has intensified efforts to diversify its manufacturing footprint, particularly in India and Vietnam. Reuters reported Thursday that Apple has already begun chartering cargo flights to ship over 600 tons of iPhones from India to the U.S.

Although Trump has temporarily paused tariffs on Indian imports, the process of reducing reliance on China is not simple. Experts say that relocating even 10% of Apple’s supply chain to the U.S. could cost upwards of $30 billion and take three years — a daunting and disruptive endeavor.

Can Apple Absorb the Costs?

Analysts are divided over whether Apple will absorb the tariff-related costs or pass them on to consumers. Dipanjan Chatterjee, principal analyst at Forrester, believes that Apple, given its strong margins and customer loyalty, can handle some of the financial burden—at least temporarily.

"Apple’s profit margins on hardware give it some cushion. And its brand is strong enough to withstand modest price hikes without losing its consumer base,” Chatterjee noted.

However, others are not so optimistic. With a potential rise in dollar value and increasing production costs, some economists believe a trickle-down effect on global gadget pricing is inevitable.

Consumer Reactions: Panic Buying and Price Anxiety

Amid growing concern over a possible spike in prices, U.S. consumers have begun rushing to Apple Stores. Outside the flagship Apple Store on New York’s Fifth Avenue, shoppers shared their anxieties with the BBC.

“I didn’t really need a phone,” said Anthony Cacioppo, a 53-year-old DJ. “But I’m not ready to pay double the price.”

“I would’ve still bought it, just maybe later,” said Bruce Conroy, a hairstylist referring to his recent iPad purchase.

Julia Baumann, a personal finance editor, had similar sentiments. “I just bought a MacBook because the tariffs are coming. I expect prices to rise — not just for tech, but for groceries and everything else.”

What Can Consumers Do?

With the full effects of the tariffs still uncertain, consumers are left with a few options. Some may switch to Android phones from brands like Samsung or Google, which offer similar features at lower costs. Others may choose to delay upgrades or buy refurbished or second-hand devices.

CCS Insight forecasts that 5.5 million second-hand smartphones will be sold in the U.K. this year, accounting for nearly 30% of the total smartphone market.

“The path of least resistance,” says Wood, “would be to keep the smartphone they already have for longer.”

Looking Ahead

As Trump’s trade policy continues to evolve and Apple remains tight-lipped, the tech industry and consumers alike are bracing for a new reality — one where even the most familiar gadgets may soon come with an unfamiliar price tag.

The real test will come this fall, when Apple is expected to launch its next-generation iPhones. Until then, both consumers and analysts will be watching closely for any signs of Apple’s next move.