Global Markets Rally, Oil Slides After Trump Announces Iran-Israel Ceasefire

Stock markets surged and oil prices fell sharply on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, easing geopolitical tensions that had rattled investors for weeks.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the ceasefire would take effect within 12 hours, effectively declaring the war “ended.” While Iranian sources confirmed agreement, Israel had not formally commented at press time.

The market responded immediately. U.S. crude dropped 3.4% to $66.15 per barrel, the lowest since June 11. Oil had already fallen 9% on Monday after Iran's minimal retaliation against a U.S. base appeared to signal de-escalation.

“With markets now viewing the escalation risk as over, attention is shifting back to trade tensions,” said Prashant Newnaha of TD Securities.

Global Equities Rebound

Relieved investors poured back into equities:

• S&P 500 futures rose 0.6%

• Nasdaq futures gained 0.9%

• EUROSTOXX 50 futures jumped 1.3%

• Japan’s Nikkei rallied 1.4%

• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed 1.7%

The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rose 1.8%, reflecting widespread optimism across Asian markets. Meanwhile, Japan’s negotiator is reportedly planning a visit to the U.S. to address lingering tariff disputes.

Currency and Commodities Move

The U.S. dollar weakened, falling to 145.70 yen, while the euro climbed to $1.1594. Both currencies benefited from easing oil prices, especially in import-heavy regions like Europe and Japan.

Gold prices, often a haven during conflict, eased 0.6% to $3,346 an ounce amid the improving risk outlook.

Fed Watch Continues

Investor focus is also shifting to monetary policy. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields ticked up to 4.35% after Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman signaled readiness for a rate cut if inflation stays in check. Markets currently price in only a 22% chance of a rate cut in July, with more eyes on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is set to testify before Congress later Tuesday.