Auction Sales Fall 6% in First Half of 2025, Stirring Fears of Art Market Shift

Auction sales declined 6% in the first half of 2025, marking the third consecutive year of falling totals and intensifying concerns that the global art market may be undergoing a deeper structural shift.

According to data released by ArtTactic, combined sales at Sotheby’s, Christie’s, and Phillips totaled $3.98 billion between January and June, down from the same period last year and 44% lower than the first half of 2022. The figure represents the weakest performance for the major houses in over a decade, excluding the disruption caused by the pandemic.

Postwar and contemporary art, long the driver of auction growth, took a harder hit with a 19% drop, adding to unease about the overall direction of the market. ArtTactic cited global economic uncertainty, persistent inflation, and geopolitical tensions as factors undermining buyer confidence.

Curiously, the contraction in art sales contrasts with historic levels of personal wealth. The top 10% of Americans have added $37 trillion in wealth since the pandemic, buoyed by strong stock markets, booming real estate, and rising business valuations. That disconnect has puzzled analysts, including Yale finance professor William Goetzmann, who has long studied the correlation between wealth and art prices.

Goetzmann noted that art prices typically rise with wealth, a trend supported by three centuries of historical data. But the current gap, he said, suggests either a short-term anomaly or a deeper change in behavior among wealthy collectors. “Is there some kind of fundamental deviation from the social norm of the very wealthy being highly involved in collecting art at the highest prices and levels? We don’t know yet,” he said.

Demographic shifts may offer one explanation. Baby boomers, who helped shape the contemporary art market in recent decades, are slowing their acquisitions or downsizing. Many are passing large art collections to heirs who may have little interest in maintaining them. At the same time, a new generation of high-net-worth individuals, millennials and Gen Z, has emerged with different tastes and spending habits, often favoring digital engagement and alternative collectibles.

Auction houses have responded by expanding online sales and offering a wider range of lower-priced luxury goods. Sales in categories like jewelry, watches, handbags, wine, and sports memorabilia grew 1% overall in the first half, according to ArtTactic, even as fine art slipped.

Jewelry stood out as a strong performer, with a 68% jump in sales, driven largely by younger, female collectors. Sotheby’s scored a high-profile sale in May when its "Mediterranean Blue" diamond fetched $21.5 million following a heated bidding contest. Christie’s also reported standout results in its luxury division, with a 29% year-over-year increase to $468 million. Among the highlights: the “Marie-Therese Pink” diamond, which reportedly belonged to Marie Antoinette, sold for $14 million, and the “Blue Belle” vivid blue diamond brought in $11 million.

Christie’s CEO Bonnie Brennan emphasized that adapting to younger buyers is now essential. Eighty percent of bids this year have been placed online, and nearly one-third of winning bids came from millennials or Gen Z buyers. “We are showing great relevance to the younger generation,” Brennan said. “It’s something that’s really critical to sustain our business going forward.”

The most intense competition is occurring in segments under $100,000, with particular heat under the $50,000 mark. Meanwhile, the ultra-high-end of the market, works priced above $10 million, saw a 39% decline last year. In contrast, sales of art under $5,000 increased 13%, a sign that emerging collectors are driving activity in lower price brackets.

As auction houses recalibrate strategies and inventory to meet new demands, industry insiders are watching closely to determine whether this is merely a cyclical downturn or the start of a lasting transformation in how art is valued, collected, and sold.