Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Fear of Assassination Complicates Israel Normalization Talks

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) is grappling with significant personal safety concerns as he navigates the delicate process of normalizing relations with Israel, according to reports from Politico. MBS has reportedly conveyed these fears to U.S. lawmakers, highlighting the potential threat to his life if he moves forward with the agreement without securing substantial concessions for the Palestinian cause.

The Critical Role of Palestinian Statehood

Central to MBS’s apprehensions is the importance of including a clear path toward Palestinian statehood in any normalization deal. He has cited the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat by Islamist militants in 1981, following his peace agreement with Israel, as a cautionary example of what could happen. The Crown Prince underscored the gravity of the situation, stating, “I will resign from my role as the guardian of the sacred places of Islam if I do not resolve what I called the most urgent justice issue facing the area.” He further noted the deep emotional investment Saudis and people across the Middle East have in the Palestinian issue.

Impact of Gaza Conflict on Normalization Talks

The recent conflict in Gaza has further complicated the already fragile negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on October 7, which resulted in nearly 1,200 deaths and 251 hostages, has intensified regional tensions. This escalation has disrupted the diplomatic efforts, making it increasingly challenging for the U.S. and Saudi Arabia to progress with the normalization deal.

U.S.-Saudi Negotiations and Political Timing

Despite his fears, MBS remains committed to advancing the deal, viewing it as crucial for Saudi Arabia's future. However, sources in the U.S. Congress indicate that finalizing an Israel-Saudi normalization agreement is unlikely before the upcoming November presidential election. There are currently no plans to seek Senate approval before its recess, further delaying the potential agreement.

The delicate balance between regional stability, personal safety, and political timing makes the path forward for Saudi-Israel normalization increasingly complex.