Japan vs Italy Predictions: Azzurri to Inflict More Misery on Struggling Sakuras

The summer internationals are winding down for many countries, and Italy's final match of their three-game tour of the Pacific sees the Azzurri taking on a Japan side that has been struggling lately.

Team News

Japan:

Changes: Eishin Kuwano debuts in the second row, Amanaki Saumaki comes in at flanker, replacing Tevita Tatafu and the suspended Kanji Shimokawa.
Repositions: Captain Michael Leitch and Faulua Makisi move to flanker and number eight respectively.
Backline Adjustments: Taiki Koyama starts at scrum-half ahead of Naoto Saito, and Rikiya Matsuda is preferred at fly-half over Lee Seung-sin.

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Italy:

Changes: Niccolo Cannone and Andrea Zambonin replace Edoardo Iachizzi and Federico Ruzza in the second row. Ross Vincent starts at flanker ahead of Manuel Zuliani.
Backline Adjustment: Louis Lynagh starts at right wing, with Jacopo Trulla moving to the left wing and Monty Ioane dropping out of the squad.

Japan vs Italy Odds

Italy: 4/9 favorites to win at the Sapporo Dome.
Japan: 19/10 to win their first head-to-head against Italy since 2018.
Draw: 25/1.
Over 51.5 total points: 5/6.

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Predictions

Italy to Win by 1-12 Points Inclusive @ 19/10:

Italy rebounded from a 33-25 defeat to Samoa with a victory over Tonga. Five of their seven matches this year have been decided by fewer than 12 points, including four of their five Six Nations fixtures, except a 36-0 loss to Ireland.
Japan has shown improvement despite recent thrashings by England (52-17) and the Maori All Blacks (36-10). However, their defeat to Georgia indicates they still have a long way to go to challenge top-tier teams. Italy's recent form suggests they can edge past Japan in a close match.

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Team to Win Both Halves - Italy @ 9/5:

Italy made significant strides during the Six Nations and recently defeated Tonga 36-14, leading 15-0 at half-time. This surge in confidence should enable Italy to outperform Japan in both halves at the Sapporo Dome.